The market direction is...

[anthrobabe]

market stability
ethics aside
invest in
Goat Futures--- embrace the power of the hypothetical goat
warning:really silly absolute drivel alert-- off topic too

[Aggie]

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/glenn/2008/0915.html

Good article here about how we got in this mess.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

How did the nation of "Free Market Capitalism" as touted by Kudlow daily on CNBC and The Wall Street Journal op ed page, get to the point where we privatize profits, and socialize losses?.....for corporations that is. Isn't that fascism according to Webster's?

Mussolini & friends would be proud.


As a side note, after a plunge, metals are gaining ground again (big surprise) but oil is at a record low despite the damages from Ike. As much as the explanations 'make sense' it bothers me to no end how magically oil prices dip before US elections. 

[Aggie]

I suspect that the resurgence in metals means the USD is going to be in trouble again - but it seems to be outpacing the Loonie with oil down. Time to sell some US equities and reposition into Canadian oil - I'm looking to put some more into ERF.UN as distributions are 15%+ at these prices.

OTOH, that portion of my portfolio is getting slaughtered at the moment.

[Scriblerus the Philosophe]

Actually, according to the Times, oil ain't doin' much better.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

In fact I correct my previous statement, metals aren't gaining as much ground as I though, just a bit over the weekend but the day trading had a dip. Something is going on and they're not telling.

Personally I'm waiting a bit to see if metals go down a bit further, but my gut tells me that they will go up medium term (and I'm baffled on the day trading).

[Aggie]

Actually, according to the Times, oil ain't doin' much better.

Nope, it's down...  which is why it's a good time to invest in oil (provided it doesn't keep falling).  Buy low, sell high.  Canadian oil income trusts also kick out a good share of their income on a monthly basis, at a set distribution (similar to a dividend, e.g. Enerplus is paying $0.47 per share per month), so a lower stock price means a relatively larger % per share distributed.

I am looking to put some money in HOU (http://finance.google.com/finance?q=TSE:HOU) somewhere around January or February, with the expectation that we will see another round of seasonal oil-price spikes next summer. Depends on what the price does in the meantime, naturally.

I've been sitting on the sidelines for the financials lately - missed some huge profits (30%+) in SKF over the last two weeks, but it's getting tough to predict day-to-day despite some major bad news.  I have very limited amounts of "play money" (held as USD) and with the loonie down, I'm reluctant to exchange more.  Might jump into UYG if/when total hell breaks loose for the banks, at $15 or below.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=AMEX:SKF
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=AMEX:UYG

If I had too much spare money, I'd be looking for a good entry point on a 100 oz. block of silver, under $10 US/oz looks attractive.  If by chance metals keep retreating, I WILL pick up a lesser amount of silver should it hit $5-6 per oz.  Alternatively, I suppose I could just price average with silver coins, but the per ounce premium irks me.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

If things are as the analysts claim, oil will go down further, possibly to $60-$70, unless we get a serious recession and then it can dip even more (and metals go to the roof).

I still feel something is off, the dollar went down too a bit but again in day trading is up, either the FED has been moving behind closed doors to quiet the markets or someone knows something we don't.

[Aggie]

There've been rumours of a rate cut today. Not sure if it'll pan out or not.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

I don't get it, although human nature explains it: how is it possible that the same thing that got us here (irresponsibly lowering interest rates) is what makes everybody happy?

[Sibling Chatty]

I don't get it, although human nature explains it: how is it possible that the same thing that got us here (irresponsibly lowering interest rates) is what makes everybody happy?

People are dirt stupid. Most don't remember any other fiscal policies than the ones in place pretty much since Reagan. and they STILL buy trickle down, because they're too trusting that "the big guys" need us peons. They do not get it that to the top dogs, we don't count unless we can stop their greed.

[Scriblerus the Philosophe]

Related question: anyone checked out McCain's Wall Street policy? He wants more deregulation there, and I was wondering what the rest of you thought.

[Griffin NoName]

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/glenn/2008/0915.html

Good article here about how we got in this mess.

Someone predicted this mess and explained why, back in the late 90's, according to the Guardian or Observer. I can't remember the guy's name (non-English as I recall) and I can't find the article. It was interesting. I am cross I cannot find it. If only I had written his name down.

I don't get it, although human nature explains it: how is it possible that the same thing that got us here (irresponsibly lowering interest rates) is what makes everybody happy?

People are dirt stupid. Most don't remember any other fiscal policies than the ones in place pretty much since Reagan. and they STILL buy trickle down, because they're too trusting that "the big guys" need us peons. They do not get it that to the top dogs, we don't count unless we can stop their greed.

And all the people who do remember 16% mortgages etc, are on the way out due to being too ancient. <sigh> There are good reasons why tribal societies look to the Elders for wisdom. No one under 75 should ever be in charge of a bank and giving masses of profits away to kids in their 20's is not merely foolish. <apologies to our youthes>

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

There are good reasons why tribal societies look to the Elders for wisdom. No one under 75 should ever be in charge of a bank and giving masses of profits away to kids in their 20's is not merely foolish. <apologies to our youthes>

So, you'd be voting McCain, right?

Related question: anyone checked out McCain's Wall Street policy? He wants more deregulation there, and I was wondering what the rest of you thought.

I heard something about it, but do you have a link on that? Today he is changing his tune but yestarday in the morning...
[youtube=425,350]6reQLzgywzk[/youtube]

[beagle]

Someone predicted this mess and explained why, back in the late 90's, according to the Guardian or Observer. I can't remember the guy's name (non-English as I recall) and I can't find the article. It was interesting. I am cross I cannot find it. If only I had written his name down.

Lots of people predicted this mess. It goes even further back than the LTCM crash of the 90s, to the Lloyds LMX spiral re-insurance cock-up of the early 1980s.  The idea that you can spread away risk only works if you really are spreading it wider and wider and not recirculating it amongst the same partners.

Also the Black-Scholes equation for pricing derivatives is a bit like those Physics equations for laminar flow of fluids in pipes, sod-all use when things get turbulent and people won't buy at any price, whatever the nice model says they should be doing. And that one goes at least as far as Maynard-Keynes (1946 or earlier)  "markets can remain irrational far longer than you or I can remain solvent."

The use of low interest rates to bail out the U.S. economy was known was known as the "Greenspan put" (named after a put option) long before this episode. i.e. if the deals go wrong the financiers can count on a big increase in liquidity to save them, except they can't any more.

In the U.K. the equivalent economic measure is the "public sector expansion". Every hint of recession in the last decade has been held off by boosting the public sector, and hiding the true cost of the future liabilities this creates off the balance sheet. Now GB has to find an extra £90bn in the next couple of years just to stand still, with nothing available to spend in a real recession, and tax receipts crumbling.