FUBAR in Colombia and the antics of Mr. Chavez

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

Ok, this is one worries me (my family, friends, etc).

This past Saturday, the Colombian army attacked a camp from the FARC* 3km/2 miles from the border inside Ecuador. The operation killed the No. 2 from the FARC and retrieve information from 3 laptops on the camp.

At first Colombia informed Ecuador from the operation and the president of Ecuador seemed to be OK with it, but hours later he suddenly enraged decided to remove his ambassador from Bogotá and eject the Colombian ambassador in Quito, breaking ties with Colombia. Up to that point the reaction might be understandable considering that Colombia violated the Ecuadorean territory in order to reach and attack said camp.

Nevertheless the issue didn't stop there. Not to long after that, Venezuela decided to do the same thing! Colombia has not entered Venezuelan territory and the operation was as far from Venezuela as it could have been (Colombia limits with Ecuador on the south and with Venezuela on the east, there is no common border because Brazil is in between). So, why did Venezuela react to something that (in theory) doesn't concern them? Well, among the data retrieved from the laptops in the camp there is evidence of financial support of Venezuela to the FARC in the not so insignificant amount of US$300 million.

Then words were followed by actions: both the Ecuadorean and the Venezuelan armies were mobilized toward the border with Colombia, interestingly not in the most populated areas but on the regions were the FARC are active, IOW it would seem like both Ecuador and Venezuela are actively protecting the FARC.

Not surprisingly Mr. Chávez has made a number of declarations against Colombia, dismissed the evidence found by the Colombian army as a 'lie' and called the president of Colombia an 'oligarch narc-president lackey of the imperialistic US'.

This thing has lots of mud including the so-called 'humanitarian exchange' (in which the FARC suggest that they would liberate some of their 300+ political prisoners [kidnapped in the past 8 years] in exchange for the liberation of all their 'soldiers' currently in Colombian prisons) but among the more worrisome facts are what is claimed to be in the laptops, including a long relationship between Chávez and the FARC since the days of his attempt of coup in Venezuela 16 years ago in which it seems the FARC gave US$10k to the help pay Chávez lawyers.

My main fear is that the relation between Chávez and the FARC is far more than sympathy because that would mean that a war between Venezuela and Colombia would be inevitable. Having most of my family is an obvious concern but who knows how many thousands would die in an idiotic war. I just hope cool heads prevail but with Chávez in the mix I'm not too confident.
--------
* A guerrilla force active in Colombia for the past 40-50 years. Mind you, the reason for the FARC being on the State Department list of terrorist organizations isn't ideological.  This people not only have actively taken towns by force, indiscriminately killed civilians both in the country side as in terrorist attacks in mayor cities, but finance themselves through kidnappings, extortion and drug trafficking. They have killed tens of thousands over the years and their mines have mimed hundreds of peasants including children. We are not talking freedom fighters here. As a Colombian I can say that despite the bad things the government of Colombia has done in the past the FARC are NOT the good guys.

[Scriblerus the Philosophe]

Not good. My cousins have relatives in Ecuador. And that's where part of my worries lie. The other, of course, is with your family.

I see the potential, from what you've said, to have Venezuela/Ecuador war with Colombia. That would be very, very bad.

I'll keep my fingers crossed for smart rulings.

[Swatopluk]

It seems that Ecuador and Venezuela are not the only ones angry at Columbia. From what I read/hear Chile and Nicaragua are also up in arms (still just metaphorically). That the US back the (not very nice) Columbian government independent of what it does may play a role here. From my very limited knowledge base Columbians seem totally screwed in any case (both sides, FARC and the government, being the bad guys with no good guys in sight).
I also get the impression that all involved distribute as much disinformation as possible, so I feel unable to find out what is actually true and what is simply propaganda (except for the simple facts* that Columbian armed forces crossed the border and that retributions are threatened)

*with no moral judgements attached

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

Nicaragua broke relations with Colombia. That makes sense because they have been claiming that a group of isles in the Caribbean (San Andres, Providencia, etc) belong to them (regardless of what the inhabitants of those islands think ). I'm not too worried about Chile either, there has been an alignment of the left and given that the only government on the right in the area is Colombia the general condemnation isn't surprising, more so when the violation of the territory is a big no-no. But condemnation isn't military support, and it would seem like the relationship between Venezuela, Ecuador and -worse of all- the FARC is too cozy.

Regarding the Colombian government I'll say that despite the fact that I didn't vote for Uribe the past round, nor do I like a number of things of his government, I totally support him on this one. In fact, I am happy about the death of 'Raul Reyes' (the No 2 of the FARC). You have no idea how bad this people are, or how many opportunities have been given to them to demobilize and become a political force (a number of groups have successfully done so in the past 20 years).

On disinformation, the economic and material support of Chávez to the FARC has been a strong rumor coming not only from Colombia but from Venezuela, interestingly from retiring military. Normally I would be more skeptic but from my sources -both Colombian and Venezuelan- everything fits, the sad surprise is how involved Ecuador was (there are more incriminating evidence and attitudes coming everyday but I don't want to bore you all to death).

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

Update: there was a meeting of all Latin American presidents in Santo Domingo and despite a rocky beginning everything went back to 'normal' at the end with lots of photo-ops at the end. Quite weird, but more interestingly quite quick. Colombian Uribe started with a row of not too diplomatic accusations which moved Ecuadorean Correa from his chair in anger, then after an exchange between Uribe and Correa, Chavez apparently diffused the situation in a surprisingly pseudo-conciliatory way. At the end the Ecuadorean president looked as if he had been forced to back down by some invisible force.

Watching the video from the verbal exchanges it would seem that something else what at play, not only the poker faces of Uribe and Chavez but (call me paranoid) the look of working cogs from almost all the presidents and foreign relations ministers in the room. I doesn't seem rational to start a negotiation while trying to upset the person you want to negotiate with (which was Uribe's apparent approach) much less when the armies of two bordering countries are moving toward you, but it could be read as 'calling their bluff'. If you ask me the surprisingly quick deescalation seemed helped by something outside the meeting itself behind closed doors, and I wouldn't be surprised if the US had something to do with it.

[Aggie]

If you ask me the surprisingly quick deescalation seemed helped by something outside the meeting itself behind closed doors, and I wouldn't be surprised if the US had something to do with it.

Yeah, that was my thought, too....  where and how the pressure was applied I have no idea.   

[Sibling Chatty]

If I had a dollar for every CIA operative that's mucked about in Central and South America, and a dollar for every $100,000 of the US taxpayer's money they've spent to infiltrate, influence and corrupt the governmental processes in a place they don't belong, I could own the known Universe...

Of course the US was complicit. The US always has to stick a nose in after it screws up something.

[Swatopluk]

One of the more absurd (in my opinion) claims was that the support for FARC included uranium for dirty bombs.
I just wait for the claim that it was Nicaragua, not Niger, that tried to sell nukes to Saddam Hussein 

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

The claim (at least as it appeared in the Colombian press) was that the FARC   were seeking uranium. As it is it wouldn't surprise me but from wishing to getting there is a significative distance.

I still have some fears about the whole thing, the alternative to pressure may be a decision to buy some time before open conflict.

[Swatopluk]

The similarity to the Niger yellowcake allegations seems a bit too close to be coincidental for me. Just wait for the updated version of the "16 words"

[Sibling Chatty]

The similarity to the Niger yellowcake allegations seems a bit too close to be coincidental for me. Just wait for the updated version of the "16 words"

The CIA has a limited playbook, and nobody with enough snap to update it for them, ever since they quit hiring spy-thriller novelists in favor of the sons of Republican donors.

[pieces o nine]

Chatty!
How *could* you?
That was Classified Information.


I didn't realize you hated Merka.   

[Sibling Chatty]

I'm as Un-Mukun as the come, ever since the CIA refused to hire me because I only write comedy and satire.

I TOLD them that they way they play it out, it comes out so FUBAR'd up that it works out to the same thing.

Poor ol' CIA. They went lookin' for a few good men and got Prescott Bush's idiot son...and then were threatened with HIS idiot son. At least they avoided THAT disaster.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

So far I haven't heard any allegations from any side about a CIA involvement. They may have been behind the operation, or may be not, the Colombian government have been actively working close to the Ecuadorean border for the past 2-3 years and the modus operandi (air bombardment) is typical from Colombian anti-guerrillas warfare. There is of course the detail of how they knew that 'Raul Reyes' was in the camp, but somehow I don't see a CIA operative better informed on that subject than the Colombian military intelligence (they are no longer using radios because of triangulation).

Regarding the data from the laptops, that is a completely different thing, still it fits previous information.

When I mentioned pressure behind closed doors I was thinking on the US State Department threatening Ecuador and possibly Venezuela with inclusion on the list of states that sponsor terrorism, subject which BTW came up in a not so veiled comment after a meeting of the OAS from the US ambassador.

[Sibling Chatty]

Well, for at least the last 75 years or so, the US has been mucking about there. The Central and South American governments untouched by US meddling can be written with a blowtorch on the pinhead with the names of all the dancing angels...