Bushfire

[Bluenose]

It is only 13 days into the Australian summer and already much of the country is at least as dry as it is at the end of summer.  The bushfire season is worse already than it usually is in February/March.  We have major bushfires burning in three states - New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.  In Tasmania one fire has claimed 18 houses in a coastal town, in Victoria the fires have burnt over 400,000 hactares (about a million acres) and are currently burning on an approximately 280 km front.

We are expecting warm weather and high winds tomorrow (Thurdsday 14 Dec) in Victoria.  The situation is very dangerous.  Only substantial rains will extinguish most of these fires and although some rain is predicted for late tomorrow in a cool change, it is unlikely to be anywhere near enough.  Indeed if the predicted rain eventuates and it is not quite heavy, the cool change may do more harm than good as it changes to direction of the fire's advance towards towns not currently threatened but relatively close to the fire.

Volunteer and professional fire fighters are stretched to the maximum and where possible give priority to protecting private property, but already a number of well known alpine tourist facilities, such as Craig's Hut and one of the chalets at Mt Buller have been burnt to the ground.  The toll is likely to rise, we can only hope that people are not included in that toll.  so far we have been lucky and there have been no reported serious injuries, but regretably, it is hard to imagine that we will get through this season scott-free.

Sibling Bluenose

[goat starer]

time to get out the trangier and go camping! or perhaps not. Tornados in london aside we have a massive deficit in natural disasters in Western Europe. I think that may be why we are so civilised! 

[Sibling Chatty]

Of all disasters, I fear fire the most.

I'm keeping the firefighters and the people in harm's way in my prayers.

[beagle]

time to get out the trangier and go camping! or perhaps not. Tornados in london aside we have a massive deficit in natural disasters in Western Europe. I think that may be why we are so civilised! 

Economists love arguing about that one. See for example David Landes "The Wealth and Poverty of Nations".
Seems self-evident to me that you're going to have trouble producing Nobel prize winners if the lab gets swept away each rainy season.

I survived the earthquake which hit Cambridge in the  1990s. Actually all that happened was ceiling lights suspended on chains swung very gently. Only found afterwards it was a tiny earthquake; not really Tokyo or California league.

P.S.  Were you being ironic about Europe being civilised Goat? There is a certain amount of historic evidence to the contrary, not least the inability to win cricket matches.

P.P.S  Can the authorities create fire-breaks around towns Bluenose? I guess people don't want to live without trees.

[goat starer]

P.S.  Were you being ironic about Europe being civilised Goat? There is a certain amount of historic evidence to the contrary, not least the inability to win cricket matches.

If that were the basis for measuring civilisation Australia would be the most civilised place on earth!!!    Have you seen Neighbours?

I think LOSING at cricket is a mark of civilisation. It says "we invented this complicated sport, we know the rules BUT we do not have the competetive need to win everything and we have more important things to do than practice.

[Bob in a quantum-state-of-faith]

P.P.S  Can the authorities create fire-breaks around towns Bluenose? I guess people don't want to live without trees.

Firebreaks are all well-and-good, for what they are for.  Mainly, for low to the ground, brush fires. They usually work very well for these.

However, for those raging crown fires, they are next to useless.  This is because a crown fire is many times hotter than a ground fire, and being up in the air, there are many more flying bits of burning stuff-- that easily cross the firebreaks and land in the brush on THAT side.

It has a great deal to do with wind, too.  On non-windy conditions, the fire does not spread very fast, and is usually brought into control pretty quickly.  Or, it may be allowed to burn off the brush (a healthy thing) if it's a ground fire.

But, if there are winds present -- then the brush fire spreads quickly, and can hit a pocket of heavy, dry brush.  Which can lead to the dreaded crown fire.

AND, if the fire is large enough, it will CREATE WIND.  That is, the rising column of smoke will shuffle the high atmosphere air-streams, and cause a change in the weather.  Which can bring in the winds from elsewhere.  Which feeds/fans the fire and -- off you go.

It seems that a great deal of the problems, here in the USofA, was due to their former policy of "fight ALL wilderness fires, no matter what".  They kept this up for years and years.  Eventually, the ground-brush accumulated so much, that ANY fire almost always jumped from a relatively safe grounder to the dreaded crown fire.

They finally got it:  ground fires are NORMAL. They need to happen every couple of years or so.   They are beneficial to the entire area, in that they kill the "sucker" trees that would otherwise crowd out the existing main trunks.  They kill off the weeds and other ground growth.  They convert the dead brush into nitrates that are better absorbed by the existing plants. And the major trees are not harmed at all by ground fires. The ONLY sufferers are the small animals that are not fast enough to get out of the way - but these are few and far.  Most either burrow deep, deep or fly or run away until the fire passes.

Nowadays, they let the grounders burn, if at all possible.  In some areas, they even start these, when conditions are deemed right.

[beagle]

Ah right, thanks for the information. We don't normally get big fires here, though this July we had lots of small ones, including moorland peat ones which are very hard to put out and keep out.

[Bluenose]

Firebreaks only help with low intesity ground fires.  Our main threat is what is called "ember attack"  Eucalypt forest burns very fiercly and what happens is that certain species have bark that burns as an ember for a very long time.  These embers get blown up into the air by the convection currents from the fire and are blown several kilometres in front of main fire front.  These fall to ground and cause spot fires.  The spot fires join up and become the new fire front.  Under the right conditions (ie with a strong wind, like is forcast for today) a fire can travel at terrifying speed.

The secret is preparation and people like my friend Alister are well prepared to defend their property, his house is well located in a large cleared area (about 100 acres), he has cut all the grass around the house very low, and the day before yesterday one of the other locals came up with a grader and scraped a bare earth strip around the house and out buildings.  Alister is ready to fight any spot fires around the house caused by ember attack.  In the event that the main fire front approaches, the trick is to fight the embers until the fire is too close, then go inside and wait until the fire has passed, usually only about 10 minutes or so, then go back out and put out any ffires around the house.  As long as you are well prepared most fires are survivable in this situation.

unfortunately not all houses are as well located as Alister's, for example the ones burnt out in Taasmania the other day.  The fire there approached so fast and the house were so close to the tree line that fire fighters were simply unable to save them.  There will no doubt be more property losses this year, I just hope we manage to get through without any loss of life.

Personally, where I live there is little risk of fire, although it is possible that a fire could burn in the Quarry behind my house, in which case I will need to take appropriate measures, but the risk is low.  In Melbourne over the last week or so we have been reminded of just how bad the fires are in other parts of the State by dint of the heavy smoke cover that has blanketed the city for much of the time.  At times visibility at my home has been down to a few hundred metres and once it was only about 150 Metres or so, although much of the time it has been less than a kilometre or two.  I am heartily sick of the smell of smoke - it permeates everything.  Still, that is a small thing compared to the dangers faced by those in the actual path of the fires.

Now on to more important things.  Cricket.  The third Ashes Test starts today in Perth.  Can England somehow manage a win or will it be once again crushed by the so-called "Dad's Army" of Australian cricket?  Currently the score board stands at 2-0.  Despite having been born in the UK, I am afraid that I am an unashamed Aussie when it comes to this particular event, personally I have my money on a 5-0 whitewash for the series.  The Poms gave me a bit if a scare I must admit in the second Test, but the way they managed to crumble on the fifth day at Adelaide has restored my faith in the English cricket.  There's nothing an Aussie likes better than just beating the Poms at cricket, except absolutely thrashing them at cricket!

Sibling Bluenose

[goat starer]

personally I have my money on a 5-0 whitewash for the series. 

like i said. Civilisation! we call our cricket 'rehabilitation of offenders'

Chevre

[Bluenose]

Update:

The fires have now burnt out about 500,000 hectares (1.25 million acres), yesterday more than a dozen homes were lost in two small towns and one firefighter lost his life in an accident when he fell from one vehicle and was crushed ubder the wheels of a following fire truck.  Very sad, I'll light a candle for him.

The next few days are going to be milder, weather wise, so the fire fighters will be able to re-group, work on control lines and get ready for the next onslaught next week.  Thursday looks like the danger day at the moment.

The talk is that these fires are likely to burn for weeks at least, probably months, until we get significant rainfall.  No sign of that any time soon.

Sibling Bluenose