The strangest thing I [past tense verb] today was....

[Aggie]

It's a tossup today.... 

I cut a frozen turkey up with a handsaw (halves is TOUGH - turkeys are round and hard to hang on to!  Quarters get easier because there's a flat bit).

I also spent a month's pay buying spiders....

[Sibling Lambicus the Toluous]

I cut a frozen turkey up with a handsaw (halves is TOUGH - turkeys are round and hard to hang on to!  Quarters get easier because there's a flat bit).

Sounds like you need to make yourself a turkey-sized mitre box... which could also be a strangest thing you ____ed that day.

I also spent a month's pay buying spiders....

Investment?

[Aggie]

Ayup.  SPDRs.

[Sibling Lambicus the Toluous]

That's crazy - I didn't even know about those!  I was actually trying to make a joke about spider farming and breeding.

[Aggie]

Have a look into ETFs (there's also Diamonds, Cubes and a bunch of other clever names).  I'd never heard about them until a couple of weeks ago.

Unfortunately, the markets are all doing quite well so I'm not convinced that I won't end up taking a loss in the short-term; the particular ones I'm in are long term investments.  WANT palladium, but physical (Maple Leafs) has ridiculous amounts of tax & premiums up front to get into, and the two palladium ETFs out there (ooh....  the Swiss one launched today!) are on foreign markets and therefore a pain to buy.

[beagle]

I'm lost, why is the markets doing a well a bad thing for SPDRs? I thought they were for going long rather than shorting. Not that I know much about them, them being foreign (relative to me that is).
Or have you tied it in with some complex derivative trade that's going to make LTCM look like a hiccup?

Or is it just they've done so well up till now you think it can't last?

P.S. We're relying on you for commodity tips, especially if one of your reports can close a mine unexpectedly  .

[Aggie]

Or is it just they've done so well up till now you think it can't last?

That'd be the one.  I'm a pessimist, particularly in regards to the US market (stuck a bunch of money in an emerging markets ETF, and have a good chunk in Canadian-based stuff).  I should really invest in QID:

UltraShort QQQ ProShares (ETF) seeks daily investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse of the daily performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index. The Fund's principal investment strategies include taking positions in financial instruments (including derivatives), in combination, should have similar daily return characteristics as twice (200%) the inverse performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index. The Fund will not sell short the individual equity securities of issuers contained in the NASDAQ-100 Index. It invests assets not invested in financial instruments, in debt instruments and/or money market instruments. The Fund's investment advisor is ProShare Advisors LLC.

When the NASDAQ takes a dive, QID goes up TWICE as much.  Seems risky unless you're sure there's a crash coming, but I might jump in if it keeps losing value.


As far as tips go, I am not usually on anything economy-shattering. Entire midsize petroleum companies yes, but big mines? Nope.   

Mind you, if I was able to easily able to get at the London Stock Exchange I'd be buying ETFS Physical Palladium shares ( http://www.etfsecurities.com/msl/etfs_physical_palladium.asp ) since I think Pd is undervalued right now and stands to rise in the future.  Maybe Swato has some inside info on the chemical applications, but the higher Pt gets, the more likely it is that manufacturers will start substituting Pd for catalytic applications.  If China ever makes catalytic converters mandatory on cars, there will be a BIG bump in prices.  Purely speculative - I'm no expert, but palladium just took a small hop downwards after being up for a while here.

[Griffin NoName]

Googling SPDR to find out what you were talking about led me to slight confusion.

Personally I hold out no investment hopes. My main concern is also that the markets are doing too well. It indicates that everything will plummet. I am convinced this will coincide with my needing to liquidise. It helps to be gloomy as it fosters a things-couldn't-be-worse happy-go-lucky attitude. I have invested in air conditioning in my one too-hot room in order to increase my saleability should the need arise...... I am now dependent on global warming.

[beagle]

That'd be the one.  I'm a pessimist, particularly in regards to the US market

There does seem to be an unhealthy assumption that risk and inflation have disappeared throughout the world.

Unless you can pick the next Microsoft it hasn't made much sense to hold US Dollar stocks in the UK. The rapid decline of the Dollar has meant even the best performing US mutuals/unit trusts have lost money over five years in Sterling terms. Pretty much anywhere else in the world has been a better bet (until the coup or the compulsory nationalisations ).

Most of my minimal fortune is in high yield UK equity income on the principle the dividend underwrites the "real" value in the medium/long term. I've just reduced UK commercial property exposure after a multi-year very good run. As I totter towards my dotage I'm faced with the same problem as Griffin, the need to put more in guaranteed equity bonds or similar in case I need my pension at the worst possible moment.

Mind you, if I was able to easily able to get at the London Stock Exchange...

Is it difficult for Canadians to own foreign stock/instruments directly? I know Americans prefer American Depository Receipts to direct ownership, whereas Brits tend to buy directly in the local market. Or is it just the hassle of meeting all the money laundering proof regulations and setting up a nominee account?


Griffin's London property plan seems good in the long term. It's worked for the Dukes of Westminster for the last few centuries.

[Aggie]

Unless you can pick the next Microsoft it hasn't made much sense to hold US Dollar stocks in the UK. The rapid decline of the Dollar has meant even the best performing US mutuals/unit trusts have lost money over five years in Sterling terms. Pretty much anywhere else in the world has been a better bet (until the coup or the compulsory nationalisations ).

Right now with the Canadian dollar doing well against the USD, it's not a bad idea to keep some funds on that side of the border.  If the $C tanks, then the US stuff will hold some value.  The reverse is probably not true as our economy would be in big trouble if the Loonie beat out the Greenback - although gasoline prices might go down a bit!  Heh, I think the best investment right now would be buying and holding bulk petrol when the price is low.

Is it difficult for Canadians to own foreign stock/instruments directly? I know Americans prefer American Depository Receipts to direct ownership, whereas Brits tend to buy directly in the local market. Or is it just the hassle of meeting all the money laundering proof regulations and setting up a nominee account?

I can trade CDN/US stock online through an account I've set up with my bank.  AFAIK, there are not big issues with buying foreign stock (I'm assuming Canadians will be able to buy UK stock fairly easily) but I'll need a broker to do so - not sure if my bank will provide the service if I use their people, but I know of a couple other banks that will.

Griffin's real estate plan is solid - we missed the latest boom by about 4 years here.  I plan to pick up some bare land if the right opportunity comes along, but I'll probably have to wait a couple of years for the market to cool in order to buy a house.

[Griffin NoName]

It's not that solid. There's a major river nearby.

All the signs are that we WILL need a new Thames Barrier but no one else seems to have it on their agenda. Think twice before investing in the London Stock Exchange; it'll be swept away. Mark my words.

[beagle]

Have you been listening to Lib Dems about the increasing use of the barrier? If so you might want to listen to the archive copy of the Radio 4 Investigation program where they showed the figures wrong by the simple expedient of getting on the 472 bus to Charlton and visiting Andy Batchelor who runs the Barrier and asking him.

See listen again link here (It's just over half way through the program, but the whole thing is interesting).

The claimed figures are the barrier was used 55 times in the last five years, and 12 in the previous five years.  The correct figures are 31, down from 35 times. I understand the Lib Dems still use the incorrect figures to this day on their green issues web sites.

But then as, Harold Wilson said, "A lie can be half way round the world before the truth has  got its boots on".

[Griffin NoName]

Have you been listening to Lib Dems about the increasing use of the barrier?

No I haven't. 

A few years ago I had a chat with one of the Barrier engineers about how it is designed to affect my area of London. Not a very reassuring chat in the very much longer term at that point in time but several lifetimes ahead of mine.

There was a nice interactive web page with the barrier which you could click to make it go up or down. I've googled and googled for it but it seems to have disappeared.

Since then, the flood tides are on the increase, more frequent and higher, and so are the gales. I keep an eye on them occasionally more out of interest than anything else. However, I have mentally chopped off a few lifetimes, although I expect it's good for quite a few still. On that particular "risk" anyway.

See Flood London site for interesting info.

And Thamesweb.com have this nice little graph but I don't know who funds them

[beagle]

They must be the right figures; they've got an Excel graph

When it comes to environmental figures I've decided you should follow Churchill's advice of not believing any statistics you haven't falsified yourself.

That graph stops a few years ago. If it's right it will be interesting how many trends change with the sunspot cycle over the next decade or so. I'm quite prepared to believe we're mucking up the atmosphere, but equally prepared to believe buffeting by the solar wind does too.

If we buy you a notepad, pencil and pair of binoculars will you keep count of the barrier for us?

[Griffin NoName]

When it comes to environmental figures I've decided you should follow Churchill's advice of not believing any statistics you haven't falsified yourself.

My sentiments exactly.

That graph stops a few years ago......
If we buy you a notepad, pencil and pair of binoculars will you keep count of the barrier for us?

Presumably the person responsible for the graph was unable to requisition a notebook after 2003. Cut backs no doubt.

Did you know that the barrier is designed so that certain parts of London are supposed to flood to make it more effective in other areas? Those parts have pub tables - outside on tow path - regularly under water. All I need is beer expenses