North Korea 'sunk South Korean warship', killing 46 sailors

[ivor]

Oh!  This is weird!

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6460FC20100507

I still find it quite amazing that both submarine and torpedo went undetected in waters covered by American sonar nets and South Korean ASW ships.  There's something fishy going on here.

[Aggie]

The UN (tactfully or cowardly, depending on one's perspective) condemned the attack but did not specify the attacker.

[ivor]

Yeah, that's weird too and the Russian experts said they didn't know what caused the blast.  I wonder if it was a remote controlled American mine that accidentally went off and this is the cover story.

I didn't know this before but they were in an area covered by an American sonar net.  There's no way they would have missed a submarine and a torpedo...  And, no doubt the whole thing is on tape somewhere and if they did miss it before they could go back and listen to it again to identify the sub and the torpedo.  There wouldn't need to be a huge investigation with such a "meh" outcome...

[Aggie]

Seems to me that South Korea would be at pains not to falsely accuse the North.  The Americans?  Who knows...  I'm sure there are elements in the military who are all for engaging North Korea once and for all (Seoul would be devastated, but it'd be a definite victory otherwise - America's military must be pining for action against an under-armed standing army, after facing all these insurgencies lately).  I think even China would wash their hands of the North if they attempted nuclear use.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

Sounds like the recent case with the Iranian guy who claimed he was abducted by the CIA, was found in the US and then came back to Iran as a 'hero'. I don't believe anyone's side of the story, and I frankly doubt the actual details will surface anytime soon if at all.

[Scriblerus the Philosophe]

Aaand now the US and South Korea are doing war exercises and North Korea is threatening war...someone I know, and who's opinion I trust, says the threat is more about Kim Jon Il's son proving a point to his generals than anything else.

I have a friend who works in the American embassy in Seoul and he says it's very tense there.

[ivor]

Militarily I don't think North Korea has a chance.  But if we get into it I don't know what side China will fall on.  Maybe somebody want this to happen so we can get in a war, China falls on the North Korean side and we just say, "Buh Bye", to a trillion dollars in debt.

I know one thing for sure.  If North Korea has a virtually silent submarine and torpedo then the US Aircraft carrier out there is bait.  I can't believe that is true though.  Certainly the US wouldn't do that...

[Scriblerus the Philosophe]

Carthage must be destroyed!

The guy who said the threat is really directed at the generals suspects that if nukes came out, or were threatened to be brought out, China would drop North Korea like a bad habit. And yeah, North Korea would be stomped flat, so I kind of don't think anything will come of it.

I also don't think that the resulting (extremely tense) political situation if they side with NK would end up with us dropping the debt like that because it wouldn't end with us going to war against North Korea. If we did drop the debt, we'd be screwed, since the current wars now cost more than the US brings in in taxes every year for the last few years and no one would pick up where China left off. We might *gasp* have to raise taxes! We'd still be over our heads, but we'd be closer to making ends meet.

[ivor]

Totally agreed. You just never know what's running through these peoples minds...

[Swatopluk]

The important thing is that they fire the first shot. (FDR, giving rise to even more undying conspiracy theories)

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

Regardless of hawks in all sides I still want to believe that Obama wouldn't pursue a war the same way dubya did, and I wonder what would take to force his hand.

Unless I've been misreading him all along...
---
One thing that popped into my mind during the latest Iran crisis (the 'new' undeclared reactor, etc) was that the reluctance of Russia and China to go along sanctions is purely economical: they have invested heavily there and would lose either payments (for weapons and reactors, Russia), or a source of energy (oil, China). IOW, apart from a face saving act (there was one with China already) with enough money/investment opportunities, you could convince them to go along and play ball.

In principle it should be the same thing with N. Korea but the problem is that it isn't, NK doesn't have as many resources and China's main fear is a massive refugee migration. I doubt that the idea of completely sealing the border is politically palatable for Beijing, plus the obvious interference in it's area of influence.

My point would be that I don't see an easy way for China to look the other way in case of a conflict.

[ivor]

I'll bet we find out here in a bit...

[Swatopluk]

Whatever one thinks of Obama, I don't think he would voluntarily start another war, esp. since those started by his predecessor are still hot and costly.
I would not dismiss the possibility of a modern-day Jack D. Ripper provoking one. In the case of Iran that could of course be a Yahu de Netanya forcing his hand. I would not put it past the Israeli government to go rogue during the hot phase of the US election campaign.
In the case of Korea, we know from their own words that US hardliners give a halfsolid digestive final product about the life of Koreans and would willingly sacifice a few million of them to solve the NK 'problem' (eggs, omelette, you know the drill).

[Sibling DavidH]

How sure are we that the US gov. would be truly unhappy to see the Israelis zap the Iranian reactors?  It cuts both ways; they would publicly throw up their hands in horror even as they ship fresh ammo to Israel.

[Swatopluk]

The wise ones (OK, we are talking about the US government) would know that this would breed more trouble than it's worth.
But for pragmatism nuking Israel would probably the least harmful longterm solution