Intelligent Evidence Theory

[Griffin NoName]

Submit your theory/proofs here !

You can work with this one, or submit your own.

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Data storage capacity/size ratio (CSR) doubles every three years.

This is an infinite series.

Permanent storage of all video captured will therefore be possible.

With CCTV et al, eventually our whole lives will be recorded and permanently stored.

If someone's life is not recorded they will not exist.

The closer the CSR gets to zero, the less our lives will exist as they approach the limit of Matter.

Therefore the human race is doomed !

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I suspect this theory/proof could be better explained. But this is my first draft and I make it available as Open Theory for everyone to improve.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

Lets assume an average of 4.5GB for 80 min of standard definition video, that gives ~56MB per minute of video or 29.5TB (terabytes) per year @ about 80 years of life expectancy would mean 2.3PB (petabytes) of video, per 7 billion persons we are talking 16YB (yottabytes) of information.

At current sizes (1TB in a commercial hard disk) and assuming double size every 3 years in 80 years a standard HD will have ~53TB which would imply the need of ~303 billion HDs to store all that video, or 300 cm³ per disk then we have a minimum of 91 million m³ of storage. @12W per disk we have 3.6TW/hour of power consumption (without the extra hardware required which could easily be 5 times that number without counting data gathering). As a point of reference the state of NY consumes ~5GW per year.

Those numbers assume a number of things:
- The use of SDTV (640x480@30fps in mpeg2 compression including audio). If HDTV (1080p) is used those numbers can go up significantly, or, if smaller and higher compressed video is used those numbers can go down significantly.
- The assumption of 80 years of life expectancy apply to women in the 1st world at present time. An increment in life expectancy is very possible if medical science continues its advancements, OTOH, war, poverty and strife can reduce significantly that number if the global trend of economic transfer (the rich richer, the poor poorer) remains.
- The population estimated is above the actual but we are supposed to reduce our population growth in the future. According to the UN with the present rate the peak will be 9.22 billion in 2075.
- The failure rate of a HD is not included, nor backup/redundancy (a RAID 5 would imply a 3 times amount of storage).

In short, it is onerous to the point of impracticality but possible.

[Griffin NoName]

Those numbers assume a number of things: ........................

In short, it is onerous to the point of impracticality but possible.

Great to get some of the detail filled out. We make a good start, maybe a great team.

One of my assumptions, which I did not specify, but which is crucial, so very remiss of me, is that the CSR series will be maintained by changes in storage matter, which (another assumption) will reduce or eliminate electricity in the progression of the general theory series progresses rendering the impracticability factor almost meaningless.

[Sibling Chatty]

This discussion iz makin mah haid hurt...

[Swatopluk]

This discussion iz makin mah haid hurt...

Wait until I start the flatearther game thread

[Bob in a quantum-state-of-faith]

Those numbers assume a number of things: ........................

In short, it is onerous to the point of impracticality but possible.

Great to get some of the detail filled out. We make a good start, maybe a great team.

One of my assumptions, which I did not specify, but which is crucial, so very remiss of me, is that the CSR series will be maintained by changes in storage matter, which (another assumption) will reduce or eliminate electricity in the progression of the general theory series progresses rendering the impracticability factor almost meaningless.

Well, obviously a biological answer is in order.

We can use a sort of organic mechanism to record the video in question.   To keep costs down, we make these self-replicating.  To facilitate the self-replication, we make them mobile.  We already specified that we don't want electricity as the primary power source, so we install systems to utilize easily available organic matter.   The mobility would come in handy, here, too-- the units can roam around, and forage for themselves.

We can make them cooperative, so that the individual images can be combined within the group, for greater accuracy.  To facilitate this, we need a communication system-- but again, no electricity, so we use vibrations in the air.

Obviously, each unit needs sound receptors as well as visual ones, to receive the inter-unit communication.

To increase quality control, we could require self-replication to only take place between cooperative units; thus each unit contributes to the process, to help reduce the possibility of introducing errors.   A sort of redundancy in the system.

To facilitate the lowering of overall costs, we can incorporate the complete self-replication process machinery entirely within selected units; this eliminates the external replication factories completely.

We need to include self-repair in all the units, both for routine maintenance and in case of accidental damage.

To keep individual units from accidentally destroying themselves, we need to incorporate a self-preservation mandate.   This should be one of the highest priorities in the units.


There. 

Problem solved. 

[Griffin NoName]

I actually wrote a computer system in Oracle like that in the 90's Bob - without the organic matter - so it ought to be easy-peasy

I suggest we don't include the EU in any mandates. They still won't allow wiggly bananas, and it might help bring Beagle on board.