Oil

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

There was an interesting discussion about oil somewhere else where it had no business happening. This is what has been said:

It's like climate change; everyone agrees it is coming, but no one behaves as if it really is.

Not everyone believes it's real (thanks to)[, and] those in power who couldn't care less who get's screwed so long their shares in oil and gas industries go up. Not only everyone would have to be conscious of the problem (not easy with the "reeducation" from the oil & gas henchmen) but ready to act upon a threat that [supposedly] will take years to materialize. Ignorance and our right malice play a role in our natural long term stupidity on that one.

Oil shares are down quite a bit at the moment, actually, although that's largely because y'all are producing a surplus of shale oil down there, thanks to fracking.

As for oil, they were explaining how the stronger dollar is affecting the price of oil (because oil is sold only in dollars), so on one end supply got way more ample, and on the other, as the US economy got better (and the European/Japanese not) the dollar went up, the price got really low, which in turn makes fracking (and the tar sands BTW) between less profitable to non viable (in fact there is a noticeable slowdown on new fracking wells here), which eventually will push the price up.

The other element is that demand has remained between stable and weak and it isn't clear if that trend will continue or not. Theoretically the lower prices should push up demand, but OTOH even emerging markets are more conscious of global warming and/or have their economies slowing down, so it is hard to tell when the prices will go back up (unless the crazies get to power here on the next cycle and declare another war in the middle east. Still, at least two years away).

The oilsands are definitely less profitable at these prices (and losing money in many cases), but it's the newer, somewhat cleaner in-situ facilities that will be hit the hardest.  I'm sure the big dirty open-pit dinosaurs from the 70's that are the most visible eyesores up there will keep chugging along just fine.

Low oil prices tend to translate to much less environmental work being done in the patch, as companies slash their cleanup budgets.

Some of the timing of this cycle might have more to do with geopolitical events than market economies, as the Saudis have been keeping production up to put financial pressure on Russia and Iran.

And to continue, I'd say the Saudis are simply placing pressure on everybody else trying to bite into their business..

[Aggie]

There's the business aspect, but also the larger geopolitical context....  The Saudis have recently started airstrikes in Yemen against Iranian-backed Houthi militants, so it's more than just dollars and cents in some cases.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

Frankly, considering that they are [reluctantly as everybody else] working with Iran against ISIS in Iraq, I'd see it more like icing on the cake more than anything else.

[Griffin NoName]

There's the business aspect, but also the larger geopolitical context....  The Saudis have recently started airstrikes in Yemen against Iranian-backed Houthi militants, so it's more than just dollars and cents in some cases.

Yeah. Like they are our allies. Did I just say that?



Oh dear, now we need another thread.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

It's all part of the same conversation, oil, interests, money, friends, enemies, allies.

Do you really care how the Houthies live or what they do? On a humanitarian sense I don't want people to be senselessly and randomly killed, but on a personal sense, they can do with their lives as they see fit, so why they heck are my taxes helping to bomb the heck out of them?

Wars have precious little to do with our safety, but the economical and geopolitical interests of those in power and those who pay for them to be in power, who -at least according to stats I've seen on the marketplace- are more than half oil and gas.