Is it time to leave for Mars?

[Griffin NoName]

Stupid, stupid, stupid. Why have they been repatriating people with Ebola? This nurse in Spain surely shows how stupid such policy is. I am very sorry for non-African nationals with Ebola but they should stay where they are. If incubation can be up to 21 days what use is it screening air travelers? Of some benefit obviously, but hardly going to be fully effective. What I really don't understand is why no one but me, apparently, saw this situation arising at least three months ago? I totally distrust Jeremy hunt (Minister of Health) saying the NHS can cope; he and his predecessor have almost enitirely broken the NHS. It's no longer fit for purpose, like ordinary purpose, like eg. treating cancer, they've got about one infectious disease beds in about 5 hospitals - that means Jeremy has to make sure only 5 people catch Ebola, and they have to be living in different parts of the country. I doubt he is that clever.

What we need is some way of testing for Ebolo before it is symptomatic. This is true for all such virus outbreaks. Why hasn't the science been done?

As for me, I'm off to Mars.

[Swatopluk]

Why hasn't the science been done?

Until now not enough money in that. Same with cures/treatments for diseases that occur almost exclusively in 3rd and 4th world countries. Once there are well-to-do customers in high enough numbers the race is on. Keeping rich old people alive is far more lucrative (not to forget certain 'enhancement' drugs coloured blue).

[Griffin NoName]

I've always wondered why it is coloured blue. There are relatively few blue drugs. Perhaps it is to stop people taking it by mistaking it for a different drug.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

The whole ebola thing has been very incompetently managed, mostly under the guise of a 'not my problem, move along' policy. Once it becomes endemic in central Africa more and more cases will be arriving to western Europe and north America.

My cynic self thinks that some higher ups want to see if this can take off a significant portion of African population and perhaps with some luck, some of the poor in the 1st world, hence the very slow response, but chances are that incompetence and the crazy idea that ISIS and Russia are more dangerous have more to do with it. 

As for Mars, chances of dieing on the way are astronomically higher than chances of any of us catching ebola due to this outbreak.

[Griffin NoName]

I go with the not my problem theory. But it was perfectly obvious it would become our problem. I still think stupidity rather than incompetence, but then they are policticians.

The UK is lauding its plan to send the army in, but they say it will take several weeks to teach them how to suit up for protection. (We get scenes of the teaching on TV). This is yet another puzzle to me as many of the medics can't have known much about suiting up in the way needed but they don't seem to get weeks of training. If they are hoping the outbreak will be over before they actually send the army in, they are in for a disappointment. Anyway, the key thing seems to be don't touch your face with the gloved hand used when treating the patient. Simple.

[Aggie]

Jeez, you think after going into an Iraq full of WMDs a few years back, they'd be well informed about the necessities of battling biological agents.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

The other explanation, at least here in the States is that -as everything these days- it's a no win situation, if the Obama administration had been proactive and sent the cavalry 6-8 months ago to nip it in the bud, we would've been inundated with pundits criticizing the expenditure in the president's buddies (remember that he's supposed to be Kenyan ). Besides, who would've recognized [him of all people] a success when that means that nothing happens?

As for the English, the French, the Germans... I suspect they felt that any institutional help to MSF was enough on their part.

[Griffin NoName]

Besides, who would've recognized [him of all people] a success when that means that nothing happens?

That could be avoided by sending adequate help to say, Sierra Leone, and none to Liberia. Admittedly the suggested number of cases is rather different each, but some clever stats could take care of that.

Not to be practiced at home. Entirely unethical.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

Actually that doesn't make sense, if you intervene early there is no 2nd country affected, and if a 2nd (or 3rd in this case) country with cases is ignored, that can very easily defeat all the effort you do in the one you're in. The point of intervention is to contain the outbreak to prevent it from leaving the affected area, subsequent containment (ie, Nigeria, Senegal) only proves that this could've been contained much, much earlier and doesn't guarantee that the outbreak will reappear in those countries (or anywhere else for what matters).

[Griffin NoName]

There would need to be a total exclusion of travel between the two countries in the trial.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

Reminds me of the reason why a controlled trial of the ebola vaccine has been deemed unethical by the WHO: "you get it, you don't, you get it... "

[Griffin NoName]

It's consequentialism. The whole point of ethics is to be as complicated as possible.

[Griffin NoName]

Here we go again. Health Ministers saying there will be a few cases in the UK but as we know what to do that's Ok. Since one is infectious once symptoms appear and goodness where that will happen - and it will take time before one is put in isolation it seems to me to be terribly stupid and smug to claim any such thing. What is the Govt. going to do? Isolate everyone with a fever plus all their contacts. We're about to start the flu season, affecting thousands,  are there really enough beds to isolate all of them while ebola tests are carried out?

Why are people being so unbelievably stupid?

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

More people [way more] will die from the flu than from ebola in the 1st world, which is why health administrators both sides of the Atlantic is claiming that it is OK, and while it may be scary to admit that people will die from a scary disease, the truth is that it is a fluke, a tiny bit of noise against many more urgent things to manage.

Again, the main issue is not if a few 'westerners' get ebola, but that the thousands of Africans getting it may become hundreds of thousands giving the virus a chance to mutate into something more contagious.

[Griffin NoName]

I agree with you on the mutation angle and that many more will die in Africa than elsewhere.

What I am objecting to is the downplaying of numbers of cases, the endless re-assurance we are given, not based on evidence, but wishful thinking. There may well be more deaths from flu this winter, I don't disagree with that, but I think they should be preparing for more than " a few cases"* of ebola. Of course, they may be planning such, but not actually telling us. I just hate and despise our govt. and I particulalry rage against the language they use (eg disabled = scum).

* a few to me is somewhere between 10 and 20, otherwise they should say hundreds, or several thousand, etc

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

They will downplay the situation because:

a) They don't want a panic. This is the kind of thing that will affect any economy in a serious way and harm millions in panic while the threat is proportionally minuscule.
b) They don't really understand the problem (getting there).
c) The cost of securing ports of entry and hospitals is materially enormous.
d) There is no vaccine against incompetence and -surprise- that also happens in the 1st world.
e) They have confidence in their means (ability to track and isolate potentials vectors).
f) It's what governments do when they don't want the public involved (as opposed to the prelude to war).
And more importantly:
g)  No matter how competent and clever it is impossible to prevent all cases, which means that having 20 deaths from this is perfectly possible. If Nigeria and Senegal, which have a drastically inferior infrastructure (and I'm sure incompetence is higher) were able to control their cases, the worst prepared country in the 1st world (Spain comes to mind in the current circumstances) can control it's cases.

This scenario (cases reaching the 1st world) is something that has been known as a possibility for a long time and some measures had been taken for such event, if those are all the ones needed or that the threat was taken seriously is a different issue, but at this point I doubt there is country in the world not taking notice.

Besides, even if your lovely government wants to dismantle the social infrastructure, they have to take care of themselves, so the immediate measures will be taken. A different tale is what happens when the net is gone and a more virulent sickness appears among the poor, one would hope they take notice of what is happening in Liberia as an example, but their minds are to centered in their navel to understand the long term consequences.

[The Meromorph]

I don't know if you've heard about the nurse in Dallas, who got Ebola through caring for the guy who flew in.
In particular, I don't know if you're getting any of the details reported...

As far as I can tell, in regular 'Community' hospitals like the one in Dallas, the 'isolation' facilities are a 'LEVEL 2' facility, and the 'personal protective equipment'(PPE) issued is also 'LEVEL 2' (gowns, masks, 'Shower caps', gloves, shoe covers, large face shields).
The hospitals used before this man, are 'LEVEL 4' facilities and the PPE is all Level 4 (Tyvec space suits, closed circuit breathing apparatus, two different types of gloves, etc.).
The CDC Teams, and the medical teams sent out to West Africa, also use Level 4.
Hell, even the commercial company hired to clean out the Ebola mans apartment of the contaminated bedding and clothing wore Level 4 gear.
The 'training' provided in the use of the Level 2 gear to the hospital staff consisted of a 7-page memo.

If a medical research facility was handling Ebola and used anything less than Level 4, they would be shut down immediately and people would be prosecuted.

[Swatopluk]

Besides, even if your lovely government wants to dismantle the social infrastructure, they have to take care of themselves, so the immediate measures will be taken. A different tale is what happens when the net is gone and a more virulent sickness appears among the poor, one would hope they take notice of what is happening in Liberia as an example, but their minds are to centered in their navel to understand the long term consequences.

A tax (and budget) cut a day keeps the doctors away 

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

I don't know if you've heard about the nurse in Dallas

We're talking about Texas here, although to tell the truth I'm sure most hospitals in the US (and likely the 1st world) are not properly prepared to take ebola cases, plus the 'for profit' mantra of healthcare here will make it more unlikely to move beyond the proverbial memo because the 'demand' doesn't justify the 'expense'.

[Griffin NoName]

No, the use of LEVEL 2 instead of LEVEL 4 PPE has not been reported here. Thanks for the heads up. Maybe I should email my MP* and ask what the hospitals here have  

*my "political agitation organisation" is forever asking me to email her on a variety of silly subjects (as well as some important).

When we had the first UK ebola case flown in they were taken to the Royal Free - a major London hospital - amidst media reporting that it had the right facilities and implying without actually saying that nowhere else did. Then mysteriously a few weeks later, the Health Minister announced, I think, 5 more hospitals with suitable isolation rooms....... It would be interesting to know if the Royal Free has Level 4 PPE but the others have LEVEL 2 PPE - that might explain how the stories changed........ because during those few weeks the threat became more apparent. Of course, could be any reason, like persuading the city councils to open their gates to ebola cases. (Actually I think York still has city gates... but not in use.)

The "few" cases has now mysteriously morphed into "a handful" - which I make 5. That's good !

One has to hope that the govt. will realise that having gone to Eton and being multi-millionaires does not prevent them catching ebola unless they use the bunker (war room under London) and don't let anyone in. Of course, if UKIP doesn't get rid of Cameron, perhaps this will (politically, I don't mean he will die of ebola, just be incompetent). G-d forbid they should give IDS at the DWP any involvement.

With only 6 months to go to elections, Cameron probably thinks someone else will be dealing with it all anyway  

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

According to wiki there are only 9 Level 4 facilities in the UK and 14 in the US:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosafety_level#List_of_BSL-4_facilities

[Griffin NoName]

Well that is comforting.

I notice that Romania is the only eastern block EU country to have any and Sweden the only Scandanavian country.

[The Meromorph]

The CDC is saying that there are only 4 BSL 4 hospitals in the US (The others are research labs.)
They have just changed their recommendations to send all confirmed cases to one of those 4 immediately.
There are very disturbing reports from DALLAS that the nurses are saying that a supervisor told them that the simple Face Shields were unnecessary 
And that the separation of the 'Isolation Ward' from the rest of the Hospital consists of a plastic curtain on a curtain rail ! 

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

So shared rooms are now "Isolation Ward Ready"? 

[Griffin NoName]

Actually, thinking about the UK ones, two are Porton Down, which is a research facility.............. so less than 9, and I think there are others listed which are too. Maybe the figure of 5 I thought I'd heard is more accurate.

The CDC is saying that there are only 4 BSL 4 hospitals in the US (The others are research labs.)
They have just changed their recommendations to send all confirmed cases to one of those 4 immediately.
There are very disturbing reports from DALLAS that the nurses are saying that a supervisor told them that the simple Face Shields were unnecessary 
And that the separation of the 'Isolation Ward' from the rest of the Hospital consists of a plastic curtain on a curtain rail ! 

So...........ignorance of how to catch it is not restricted to 3rd world people...........

[Swatopluk]

The Rachel Maddow show had some more details on the Dallas case (watching the podcast right now). The way that case got handled in Dallas verges on criminal, and it will be a small miracle, if only two nurses catched the disease and not several of the ER patients he got left with unattended for hours or those that the nurses cared for in parallel with the first ebola patient (not to forget the unsecured pile of waste 'to the ceiling').

[The Meromorph]

What the Dallas hospital admins seem to have not been thinking was.

A nurse trained in BSL 4 protocols and with BSL4  PPE , in a BSL 4 facility would be regarding 'bodily fluids' as the lethal pathogens they are for Ebola Patients.                   

Any 'ordinary' nurse  has had years of training and experience with ordinary 'body fluids'.
This 'everyday hero', when encountering sheets and gowns, and suchlike, covered in shit, and/or blood, and/or vomit, 'Sucks it up [I run for someone else to do it], then Picks it up, then pitches it in the laundry bin', which with Ebola  Patients is an immediate disaster.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

It turns out that while the hospital is one of the best in prenatal care and coronary diseases, it's abysmally bad at emergency care where the general order seems to be "get rid of the patients ASAP"; this BTW is not a fluke (waiting for two hours in ER is not the exception but the rule) which is surprising considering the outrageous amounts of money hospitals charge for an ER visit.

Capitalism at work.

[Griffin NoName]

.........and the "doctors" said it was ok for the 2nd nurse to fly by plane with a fever.............. as I said in my first post, stupid, stupid, stupid. Granted most of the 132 passengers would not be exposed to infectious body fluids, what bout ones she brushed against going up or down the isle, and I certainly wouldn't want to be the person to be in her seat on the next flight. It seems to have been several more flights prior to decomtaminating the plane, so how many potential contacts? Are any but the 132 being chased up? A handful of cases? Score 0 on my intelligence scale.

I have my flu jab on Tuesday.

[The Meromorph]

Latest scary thought:
Though there are 4 LEVEL 4 hospitals in the USA, They have a total of 9 beds, of which 4 are already in use.
That leaves only 5 beds available for any new cases.

It might be possible to add perhaps 5 more, with sufficient money, and 'borrowing' skilled CDC staff...


When you recall that they are isolating and tracking 77 people who had medical contact with the original patient under LEVEL 2 conditions (exactly like the two nurses already infected).

If only 20% of them turn out to be infected, there won't be enough places to put them...

It could turn into a full-fledged outbreak, in the USA...

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

Back to reality, remember that both Nigeria and Senegal were able to contain their cases without the infrastructure of the US.

Will 20 people get infected or die out of the blatant incompetency of this incident? Quite possible. Will it become an outbreak? Very, very unlikely.

[Griffin NoName]

It's ok, the UK estimate is a handful of cases here (which is 5 casess), so multiply that up for the extra population in the States - still very few. Don't panic, our government isn't.

Perhaps the US should take advice from Nigeria and Senegal on how to contain it?

[Griffin NoName]

Interesting article.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/19/ebola-america-fear-barack-obama-virus

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

Just read the comments, because the crazy like to defend the crazy...
--
A more interesting note is found in the latest graphics about the ebola outbreak in Africa:

According to WHO, the decline in numbers for Liberia is unlikely to be genuine. It rather reflects a detarioration in the ability of overwhelmed responders to record accurate epidemiological data.

You see the graphs and it would seem that finally the situation is being contained in Liberia hence the warning.

[Griffin NoName]

I especially like this "note"

<24 Apr: stated it was reviewing its 27 suspected cases and may toss all of them>

There's nothing like showing lots of impressive graphs and figures where one knows for certain they are all wrong. Whatever energy is going into collating such figures would be better spent helping the dying. It is pretty obvious no one could hope to record accurate figures.

Just read the comments, because the crazy like to defend the crazy...

It was the article that was interesting.

[Griffin NoName]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/30/homeopaths-offer-services-fight-ebola

How can anyone be so stupid?

It's like believing in ID.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

Incredibly dangerous, only one survivor and those quacks individuals will claim that homeopathy can cure ebola.

[Swatopluk]

Nick Muzin, the deputy chief of staff for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz:

    'Before ObamaCare, there had never been a case of Ebola in the U.S.'

Time to blame AIDS on Jimmy Carter, I presume.
Otherwise it would have to be Reagan's fault.
On the other hand, since AIDS kills gays, it may have been G#d's gift to Ronny (who did not know how to properly use it though)
Sarcasm eating holes into my keaboard again.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

That asshat really bothers me, Marco Rubio may be a sold-out opportunist but Cruz really goes to the bottom of the barrel, and it bothers me greatly how he supposedly represents what a Hispanic politician is. I haven't heard one single sensible thing coming out of his mouth nor do I expect it to happen as he is in the same league as Gohmert, Bachmann and Palin. The existence (and power) of said entities is proof enough that if there is a god in the world he must be truly evil.