The Knight's Gate in Kiev

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

I couldn't resist making a Mussorgsky reference while thinking on the current turmoil in Ukraine.
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Reading the news and the reactions to the events I'm a bit surprised as how certain things remain the same even if the Cold War ended about a quarter of a century ago. From my desk it would seem that the western media paints the Russians as the evil monsters taking over the poor Ukrainians in Crimea. From the East it would seem that the Russians in Crimea would face imminent death from the evil West.

No shots have been fired in Crimea (yet) to my knowledge, although things in Donetsk seem to be a bit more "active" (although you would have to read Xinhua because the western news are still repeating the already refuted threats to the Ukrainian military bases in Crimea).

Beyond how evil Yanukovich really is (apparently very evil) or how obvious is for Russia to desire their main base in the Black sea to be under their indisputable control, the truth is that the overwhelming majority of people living in Crimea are ethnic Russians, and I don't see how they can go back to how things were.

Now, things in Donetsk and other cities in the East are a bit more complicated as according to admittedly oldish polls, the Ukrainian and Russians are more or less evenly split demographically. True, the majority voted for Yanukovich in the eastern provinces/oblasts, but still there are significant ethnic Ukrainians in those regions, more interesting are places like Odessa where technically the Russians are a third of the population but the overwhelming majority are Russian speakers.

Personally I don't think the country can remain whole but it is clear that the populations are quite intertwined, at least in the East making any changes a potentially explosive proposition.

What do you gals & guys think?

[Griffin NoName]

Reading the news and the reactions to the events I'm a bit surprised as how certain things remain the same even if the Cold War ended about a quarter of a century ago.

Here in the UK it is being presented as the Cold War is back.

I wonder about WWIII except that I don't think anyone in the west would bother to fight. In fact, they are all grandstanding but it seems like hot air to me. There's something quite pompous about William Hague pronouncing this and that when clearly we will actually be doing nothing.

On how to resolve it, build a big wall dividing east and west, one side to be russian, one side ukraine, and tell everyone to take their pick of where to live. I don't see why this wouldn't work, except it has been pointed out to me that it didn't work in the Balkans. It seems perfectly reasonable to me, especially if the allowed Banksi to decorate the wall.

[roystonoboogie]

It is an interesting one. The UK* is currently in a bit of an anti-EU phase, and we seem to be moving further away from Europe politically. Plus, we are utterly reliant on Russian gas at the moment. Huge amounts or Russian money are being poured into the UK* economy, and as much as we might not want to be seen supporting Putin, we are kind-of in bed with him.We already know Putin is not above turning off the gas - he did it to Ukraine a few years ago - so the UK Government will be doing backflips to show how friendly it is to Russia and Putin.

Meanwhile Ukraine is in revolt because it wants to be politically closer to Europe (which it would appear the UK* doesn't), and politically further away from Russia (which it would also appear the UK* doesn't). Yanukovich is/was an insane despot, but then so is Putin, and the problem will be that if Ukraine successfully reorganises itself as a proto-European country, our enforced friendship with Russia will mean that we are not going to form those closer ties with Ukraine. I suspect that will be the case across much of the EU.

I understand that Crimea is a semi-autonomous part of Ukraine, but I don't know how strong its own political will and political muscle is: can it remain semi-autonomous? I seriously doubt that Russia would allow Crimea the same degree of freedom that Ukraine does, so it would probably become just another part of Russia if Ukraine cannot negotiate a withdrawal of Russian troops.

As for Balkan-style walls - it has worked (after a fashion) in Cyprus for years, another island, another strategically important military base. It is far from a perfect solution, but it could be made to work. Hopefully. I just hope the war stays cold and doesn't heat up.

*Well, the bottom right-hand corner of it anyway.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

I seem to recall that when the Indians and Pakistanis were asked to choose the process was anything but peaceful...

As for Crimea being independent, well, I seriously doubt the Abjhaz and the South Ossetians are, but they just didn't want to be under the Georgian flag, and keep in mind that they aren't Rus while most Crimeans are.

[Darlica]

I fear Europe is on the brink of war again.

Russia has more or less annexed the Crimea peninsula.

To suggest that that Crimea should belong to Russia instead of Ukraine because the majority of the people speak Russian is pretty much to say that California should belong to Mexico because the majority is Hispanic...

Russia has a lot of military interests in the area, military bases on Ukrainian ground, a lot of military ships outside the coast in fact one of the most powerful marine fleets in the world is floating around in the Black sea at the moment.
A majority of the people on Crimea are Russian or Russian descendants yes, but the land undoubtedly belongs to Ukraine, most Russian speaking people moved there during the Soviet era, to man the military bases or cater to the tourists and the rich and famous. Crimea and Jalta specifically with it's Black Sea shores was the Holiday paradise Soviet citizens (and many other "esterners") dreamed of. The Party had it's official summer/vacation homes here as had the "Elite". It was the place to be seen.  


I suppose living next door to Russia this whole thing makes me nervous (it's 690,88 km between Stockholm and St Petersburg and only about 349 km between the Swedish mainland and Kaliningrad).

There was an aspiring revolution in Ukraine, PM left his position to the opposition, the government was overthrown, dates for a new election were in the pipeline. The Putin friendly President responsible for ordering snipers to shoot at the protesting masses, of opposition leaders deaths and disappearances and the use of torture, refused to resign on an direct order of the newly formed parliament but instead fled in to the arms of Putin.

And then the Russian troops started to move.  

And yes, those are Russian elite troop, those upstanding Russian Crimeans who just picked up a gun and took to the streets. Many of them have state of the art hyper advanced clothing and weaponry, so advances the camo prints on their uniforms are computer generated (brand new), they have the new Kevlar helmets used for the special operations squads, not the standard steel ones, the weapon have advanced holographic sights and is way beyond the standard Russian military issue. There are plenty of photos to to prove that.

Now this could just be another bloody conflict between Putins Russia and one of the other former Soviet states (there are a lot of those conflicts, Kazakhstan, Chechnya and more) where the rest of the world just stand by as on lookers (concerned onlookers but still) if it wasn't for on little thing.
When the Soviet union fell apart and Ukraine became a independent country it suddenly had a wast arsenal of nuclear weapons, because old Soviet had huge bases for both tactical and strategic nuclear robots there.
The rest of Europe (and probably the rest of the world too) got a bit nervous about this, and promised Ukraine that if they had their nuclear weapons destroyed along with the lines of the Budapest Treaty they would help to protect Ukraine's territorial integrity...  Ukraine wanting to go "west" did what they where asked to do.
 
Do you see where this is leading?

It seems we are about to find out if those promises were worth anything more than the paper and the ink used to write them, or even less.


Some voices where raised here in Sweden before the Sochi Olympic games that this was a parallel to Berlin 1936...
Have we all been watching aplauding Putin's remake of one of Hitler's biggest PR successes?

There hasn't been a violation of a state's integrity like this in Europe since Soviet troops invaded Prague in 1968.


And if Putin takes Crimea and or Ukraine or parts of it what will stop him from invading other neighboring countries? His word? Finland has parts which has traditionally belonged to The Old Russian empire... The Baltic States?

Make no mistake the man is a megalomaniac, a very intelligent such, former head of KGB.

It doesn't look good.

[Swatopluk]

The only thing that would seriously hurt Putin would be sanctions against the Russian financial sector (Russia would have no problem to sell its oil and gas elsewhere, if Europe would start a boycott). But it would also hurt the bottom line of the politically well connected financial sector in the West, so this is not going to happen.

Only mad GOPsters would sent troops (and even many of those only when the guy in the White House is not one of them). Superpowers are not bound by laws unless they step on the feet of other superpowers.

Historically the Crimea belonged to the Tartars, then to Russia and since 1954 (or 1952, not fully sure) to Ukraine. A gift from Chrushtshow (aka The Exexecutioner of Ukraine since he organized the genocidal famine that killed several million Ukranians).

[Darlica]

I would'nt recommend to send in troops either.
But sanctions? Embargoes? Yes. Something needs to be done.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

I guess the fact that I live at the other side of the Atlantic means that the Russians I've met are pretty much like the Hispanics, just looking for a better place to live, and I don't have the "privilege" to see their warships in the Baltic, so I'm not so paranoid about them (I'm paranoid about the rednecks in the deep south, because, well, I just had to drive to my son's future school and the signs of The South are quite clear). 
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To suggest that that Crimea should belong to Russia instead of Ukraine because the majority of the people speak Russian is pretty much to say that California should belong to Mexico because the majority is Hispanic...

Mmm, parts of it, yes, and parts of Texas, Arizona and New Mexico. I dunno about going back to Mexico, but would you blame them if one of these days they make a referendum to secede? In fact, that same thing has happened with Puerto Rico, even if the vote went to the status quo. Actually you don't even have to go that far, Catalonia and Scotland are thinking on such measures. My point is that if the people living there (and done so for at least a century, mind you) decides to secede, can you blame them?

Besides, I seriously doubt about an outright annexation, it didn't happen with Abjhazia and South Ossetia, even if they are de-facto Russian "protectorates".

Regardless of how stupid or not their reasons are, if the actual population doesn't want to be part of a country, should they be forced to remain? Note that the same applies to Chechenia, Tibet and Xinjiang in China, portions of the palestine, etc, etc, sadly they are pretty much powerless while the Crimeans (like the Ossetians and the Abjhaz before them) have a very willing and powerful ally in this case. That reminds me of some Panamanian dissidents that had the US as a godfather, so that they could secede from Colombia and become a US "protectorate" for almost a century.

It's not the righteousness of your cause, it's what you have and who you know.

[Darlica]

Regardless of how stupid or not their reasons are, if the actual population doesn't want to be part of a country, should they be forced to remain?
It's not the righteousness of your cause, it's what you have and who you know.

Absolutely, the problem is, it seams like a lot of the Russian Crimeans will to leave Ukraine is  propaganda from Putin. It was a non issue as long as Yanukovich was the president.
The few Crimean Tartars who are left rise concerned voices about what would happen to them if Russia took over...

Anyhow I think it's wrong of Putin to meddle in Ukraine's domestics. If they held a democratic election at Crimea and the decided to become independent or belong to Russia instead. Fine and dandy. But that's not what happening. And the Russian Crimeans can in no way or form be compared to Tibetans or the Palestinians.

And I'm not saying that the opposition now in power in Kiev is a bunch of angels either, there are strong indications that ultra nationalists have fingers in a lots of pots and are trying to grab as much power as they can.
That's another can of worms.  But there where also those who strive for actual democracy.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

I've been following the events unfolding and the more I read the less sense it made, on one end I heard an interesting conversation between the Estonian foreign minister and the American envoy Victoria Nuland (the one of FU the EU fame) in which the former was noticeable distressed about the radical right wing elements in power if Kiev. I also heard the full leaked conversation (FUEU for short) and surprise surprise, the people suggested by Victoria Nuland for key positions in Kiev are the ones in power now. I even heard one allegation that the snipers in Kiev weren't Ukrainian or Russian soldiers but Ukrainian right wingers.

But the key thing here was how the whole thing has been playing in Putin's hands like a glove, it's almost too easy to see how the situation would deteriorate in the exact way it has, and now with the referendum pretty much validating Russia's position, there isn't a scenario in which Russia doesn't prevail, in fact there is a very real chance that other eastern oblasts try the same thing.

If it was obvious that a) Russia would use any excuse to take Crimea, and b) that the majority would vote to secede, why on earth push in that direction? Are western -and more specifically, American- diplomats that incompetent?

This morning I was listening to the radio and after I heard for the umpteenth time how Germany get's 30% of it's gas from Russia that a crazy idea popped into my head, what if the US diplomats haven't been incompetent on this?
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I remembered how for years the Iraq war didn't make sense, there was no obvious advantage for the US (as a country) to get in and the human and economic cost of the war can only confirm that view. Better yet, the same person that talked Bush Sr. out of outright invading Iraq in '91 was the same pushing for the invasion (one Richard Cheney), so why push so hard when it was perfectly clear how bad it would be? Then you had to remember that the price of oil prior to the war was between $16 to $18 a barrel, and after it reached $100+ (which interestingly enough is the price today). Also, Iraq (with Iran) is one of the places where traditional oil production still happens, that is, the pressure of the well makes the oil flow easily to the surface, without the need for much water pumping or fracking. Those wells weren't under western corporations control but after the war, all oil production is under corporate control and the average Iraqi doesn't benefit much from the business. At this point is clear to me that the war was fought for the Oil & Gas corporate interests in detriment of everybody else, and incredibly some officials don't even try to conceal it, I do remember one American official mentioning in one interview that one of the measures of success in Iraq was that the oil fields were now exploited by corporate interests.
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The situation in the Ukrainie doesn't make sense, by all measures it compromised the territorial integrity of Ukraine, endangers all diplomatic endeavors in which Russia is aligned with the west, and more importantly, it places Germany and other EU countries in a very worrisome game of chicken with Russia which at any time can just cut the tap of gas if it feels that the west is going to far. What possible benefit could be gained by pushing Russia then?

It is worth mentioning that even before the snipers a number of US senators and representatives were pushing hard for help from the government to build plants to liquify gas for export, specifically to western Europe and I find their timing quite curious. On the other hand for these past months there have been some attempts by big oil to start doing fracking in the UK and continental Europe but not surprisingly the Europeans don't have much interest in polluting their underground water reserves.

Now today with Crimea integrating with Russia and Europe+US talking sanctions, there is a renewed interest in fracking in the EU.

Perhaps I have my conspiracy theory hat on today, but it is hard to debate that once again the oil industry is the indirect beneficiary of a situation that doesn't seem to benefit anybody else.

Fuck the EU indeed.

[Griffin NoName]

I've lost the plot. If the people who live in Crimea all want to be Russian, why does it matter, and why is it illegal?

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

It matters if someone powerful enough wants you to or doesn't want you to be something else, for instance, when Kosovo declared independence from Serbia the west unanimously endorsed it, but if Crimea wants to be part of Russia the west doesn't like it, the other side of the coin is if Chechenia wants to be independent Russia will oppose it with bombs if necessary.

If you have no friends you are f*cked, like the Kurds, or the Tibetans, or the Uyghurs.

Note that even in the west independence isn't desirable and more or less actively rejected like Catalonia, Scotland or at times Puerto Rico and Quebec.

[roystonoboogie]

I think the problem with the referendum is that it is being held at gunpoint. Is it fair? Is it valid? Is it legitimate? My personal feeling is no. The people of Crimea, much like the people of Scotland, Catalonia etc, have a universal human right to self-determination. Is the referendum unbiased and fair? Not if there are Russian military boots on Crimean soil it is not.

The Crimean people may be able to gain concessions and advantages from both Russia and Ukraine, unless Russia just 'takes' Crimea and exploits it as it has done in the past. Unless Crimea retains its autonomy, the Crimean people lose.

[Sibling Zono (anon1mat0)]

Under different circumstances I would likely agree if it weren't because independently interviewed people actually agreed with secession, nobody to my knowledge was voting at gun point and the vote was secret as any other vote with some observers, even if not the best available.

Be mindful of the rhetoric of western media which is very clearly biased, perhaps not as much as Russian media but not impartial by any means. Currently I'd suggest Al Jazeera or perhaps even Xinhua as more impartial than other media on this subject in particular.

[Griffin NoName]

Alot of what is going on is to do with what Putin might do next. That's a given for escalation.